Catalyst Monitor.
A weekly catalyst review across the whole Japanese consumer universe. We separate the catalysts that change the long-term view from the noise that doesn’t.
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Latest issue
Fourteen upgrades, and almost no one said how much was the yen
Fourteen guidance revisions in eight days, almost none isolating the currency. Where the constant-currency split exists it's negative two times in three — Asahi, Suntory. Asics publishes the split and it holds; Toyo Tire cut operating profit and raised net in the same document.
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Latest takeaways will appear here once the issue’s editorial summary is published.
Series archive
4 issues · Weekly| # | Window | Headline event | Companies in focus | Access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| issue-04 Latest | Published | Fourteen upgrades, and almost no one said how much was the yen Fourteen guidance revisions in eight days, almost none isolating the currency. Where the constant-currency split exists it's negative two times in three — Asahi, Suntory. Asics publishes the split and it holds; Toyo Tire cut operating profit and raised net in the same document. | focus-5105 | Free |
| issue-03 | Published | The guidance is denominated in a yen under attack A joint Japan-US intervention took the yen to 155.2 and exposed that almost every guidance upgrade this quarter is denominated in a yen under attack. Honda pins its entire 30% upgrade on an FX assumption change. | focus-4922 | Free |
| issue-02 | Published | The beats that dissolve on retreatment A ¥164 yen snapped six yen higher on a suspected 30 July intervention, then met a hawkish BoJ hold. The season's headline beats dissolve on retreatment — Shimano, Sony and CCBJ all flattered by FX or accounting. Kumamoto's quake put unpriced asset risk on Aeon and Sony. | focus-2579 focus-7309 focus-8267 | Free |
| issue-01 | Published | The price of things vs the price of money The yen closed at ¥164, its weakest since 1986 — a condition that flatters every yen margin, not a catalyst. The real movers were capital and governance: an activist at 5.10% of Yamada mid-merger, a 7-Eleven US leadership change before its IPO, Kobe Bussan reaccelerating, Nichirei ransomwared. | focus-9831 focus-2871 focus-3038 focus-3382 | Free |